Live · Volatility Regime · XAUUSD
Odds of a
major move.
90%Current volatility-regime reading: 90% probability of a large move in gold over the next 12 hours.
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High
Model-estimated probability of a large price move in gold over the next 12 hours. A volatility read — it does not forecast direction.
VALIDATED ACROSS BULL, BEAR & RANGE — BEAT BASELINE IN ALL 8 OUT-OF-SAMPLE FOLDS.
AS OF 10 JUL 2026 05:00 UTC
The backdrop.
Positioning & MacroMacro Context
2026-07-10Gold
$4,116.74
DXY
100.97
+0.88% 20d
10Y Real Yield
2.31%
+0.08pp 20d
Gold / Dollar · 60-day◆ Inverse holding · -0.57
The classic inverse gold/dollar relationship is holding — gold and the dollar are moving in opposite directions.
EDUCATIONAL ANALYTICS ONLY · NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE · SOURCES: FRED, ICE
Smart Money · CFTC COT
week of 2026-07-0752-Week COT Index
36/100
Crowded shortCrowded long
Large speculators are net 194,246 long — yet the index of 36 places that near the low of its own trailing-year range.
→ large speculators net bearish · 4w net +20,409
EDUCATIONAL ANALYTICS ONLY · NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE · SOURCE: CFTC