Mean Reversion
The claim: That price always returns to its average, so fade the extremes and collect.
−$205 over the full test — a statistical dead heat with the cost of trading.
How it actually works
When price stretches far from a moving average or band, you bet on a snap back toward the mean.
On EURUSD we implemented and tested it cleanly across 3.5 years.
We tested it
Result: −$205. Effectively break-even — which, after costs, is exactly what an efficient market looks like.
There was no exploitable reversion edge left once real spreads and commissions were paid.
Every figure comes from this project's own out-of-sample walk-forward testing on real costs — the full research record is in the Lab.
What it teaches you
Break-even after costs is not failure of the test — it's the market telling you the truth. Efficient markets pay you nothing for the obvious.
A perfect-looking pattern can still have no edge. The test, not the story, decides.
Put it to work — safely
Whatever you trade, the survivable part is the sizing. Use our free position-size & risk calculator to bound every trade before you take it, and read the live volatility state on the board.
Education, not advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to trade, or a claim about which direction a market will go — see Terms.