Swing Trend-Following
The claim: That catching the big H1 trend and holding it is a steady, reliable edge.
+$8,900 total — but 86% of it came from a single week.
How it actually works
Identify the higher-timeframe trend, enter on pullbacks, hold for the swing. Sensible, classic, widely taught.
Headline result looked healthy: +$8,900 over the test.
We tested it
Then we ran the concentration check: 86% of the entire profit came from one exceptional week. Remove that week and the edge collapses.
Adding fixed-risk stops on top made it worse — the stops became noise-width and the account fell ~90%.
Every figure comes from this project's own out-of-sample walk-forward testing on real costs — the full research record is in the Lab.
What it teaches you
A profit that lives in one week is not an edge — it's a lottery ticket you already scratched. Always ask where the money actually came from.
A perfect-looking pattern can still have no edge. The test, not the story, decides.
Put it to work — safely
Whatever you trade, the survivable part is the sizing. Use our free position-size & risk calculator to bound every trade before you take it, and read the live volatility state on the board.
Education, not advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to trade, or a claim about which direction a market will go — see Terms.